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USFL Championship


07/03/2022 Barry Sterling Mitchell


On a recent episode of Ben and Barry on Football™, we discussed our picks for the USFL Championship between the Philadelphia Stars and the Birmingham Stallions. Neither of us had spent much quality time watching games. We focus on the NFL but the USFL is now part of the total football picture.

When the NFL is in season, we look at the teams and the matchups through a statistical lens as well as film. The Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™ provide a objective method of rankings and for matchups it fuels the Bias+ Reports™ which adds Turnover Differential to the formula where we look at the difference in net points and turnover differential to determine which team is favored.

The Sterling Pro Football Net Point Power Rankings™ provides a unique approach to analyzing & ranking Pro Football teams. Unlike most rankings, my rankings have no opinion It's purely quantitative & a great starting point for analysis.

The Sterling Net Point Power Rankings (#SterlingNPPR) are predictive only in that it is a measure of dominance.

Last year it correctly predicted the teams in the Super Bowl but not the eventual winner. Other factors that always affect a game’s outcome are coaching, unit match-ups, turnover margin, injuries etc. Let’s consider the USFL Championship contenders Philadelphia Stars and Birmingham Stallions.

The Philadelphia Stars had a major personnel change when their first-round draft pick at quarterback Brian Scott went down to injury. He was replaced by Case Cookus who will be behind center in today’s Championship.

The Stars (6-4) scored 281 points in regular and post season. They allowed 257 points. That nets to +24 points. In addition, the Stars ranked 1st in Turnover Differential at +8.

The Stallions had the best record in the league at 9&1. They impressed me with their efficiency offensively. Quarterback J'Mar Smith is again under center for his coach at Louisiana Tech Skip Holtz. He actually has history Coach Holtz back to high school. 

They scored 265 points in total. Defensively they were elite allowing only 186 points including the playoff. Their net points are +79. As far as Turnover Differential is concerned, they were middle of the road at +1.

Bottom line, The Stallions are Net Point favorites at 55. This is mitigated by their Turnover Differential deficit of 7 giving the Stallions a Bias+ score of 48. This is in line with the Betting odds that have the Stallions at 4.5-point favorites (DraftKings). If you spread the 48 Bias score over 11 games, you’re at 4.33 per game. Enjoy!

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