The Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™

 NFL Intriguing Game of the Day

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Bias+ Score: 0.5 favors Baltimore Ravens

When I looked at today’s schedule to pick the ‘Intriguing Game’ there were some good ones. First, this is a classic matchup of a running quarterback vs a pocket passer. In both instances these QBs excel in their own way. The numbers are also intriguing. We’ll dive in further along but you’ll see the differentials and wonder how the Bias+ is only a half of a point. Lastly, Division matchups are usually weird anyway.

Speaking of points, it’s always wondrous to me when my Bias+ agrees with Vegas odds makers. Considering this is a home game and as I understand it, the Homefield advantage is worth 3 points. The Bias+ does not add points for the home field advantage (we use the actual scoring history) but if we add the three points then the Bias+ at 3.5 points is the exact odds issued by the Vegas Odds makers at -3.5. Let’s look at these squads so far.

Both teams have the same record at two and two. The Ravens have not won at home while the Bengals split home and away. The Bengals started off looking like a troubled squad after losing to the Steelers. They gave up five turnovers including four interceptions by QB Joe Burrow and two missed kicks including a PAT at the end of regulation and a 29-yard Field Goal in Overtime. The other loss was to a Cowboys team led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush who has prover way more capable than most of us thought. The Ravens on the other hand were overtaken by the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins were one of teams the Bengal defeated.

Here's the numbers. The Ravens rank 3^rd in scoring 29.8 PPG. The Bengals defensively rank 8^th allowing just 17.5 PPG. The Bengals offense ranks 13^th scoring 22.8 PPG vs the Ravens defense which is ranked 24^th allowing 25 PPG. The Raven’s defense is the biggest question here.

What’s it all mean? We’ll here at the Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™ it all about the Net or the Differential. The Ravens rank 7^th with +4.8 Net Points. The Bengals rank 6^th with +5.3 Net Points. That gives the Bengals a .5 Net Point advantage. However, this is the Bias+ and the + is the Turnover Differential. Here, the Ravens rank 2^nd with +1.3 Average Turnover Differential (ATOD) per game while the Bengals 14^th with +0.3 ATOD per game (remember the bad turnover day Joe Burrow had). We add the Net Point Differential and the ATOD which swings the favor back to the Ravens and a Bias+ score of 0.5 favoring the Ravens.

Bottom line, I define the first 4 games of the regular season as the 2^nd Preseason because for most teams it’s the first time the starters all played together. That’s now over. I expect most teams to be starting to synchronize their play and display a clearer picture of who they are. Are the Ravens destined to waste what looks like an MVP season from a very motivated Lamar Jackson with a surprisingly ineffective defense? Are the Bengals able to regain the form that took them to last year's Super Bowl? These questions and more are on the table today and I’m certain new questions will arise. That’s what makes this my “Intriguing Game of the Week” Enjoy.

Barry Sterling Mitchell