NFL
Intriguing Game of the Week
Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots
Bias+
Score 9.4 Favors New England Patriots
The ‘Intriguing Game
of the Week is the Chicago Bears versus New England Patriots and I really want to
talk about the contrast in styles of PAT’s QBs Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe versus
Justin Fields and the Brain Trust of the Patriots versus
the Bear’s Brain Trust.
The
Patriots run basically a pocket-based offense. The Bear’s Justin Fields is kind
of like Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles in that he’s athletic and he can
throw the ball but the offensive scheme around him is not as strong as the
Eagles.
Choosing
the ‘Intriguing Game’ is always a challenge but one item I look at is the Bias+
score and especially if it’s the highest or lowest of the week. In this case, the
Bias+ score favoring the Patriots is the highest of the week.
This
has been an extremely volatile NFL season so far and I may be bad luck for featured
quarterbacks. Last week I praised Cooper Rush of the Cowboys and he went to
Philly and had his worst game ever. In any event…
Let’s
look at the numbers. First the Bears. The Bears enter Week 8 ranked 26th
in Net Points at -4.2. They rank 31st in Points For averaging just
15.5 points per game (ppg). Defensively, they rank 20th allowing an
average of 19.7 ppg. Turnovers have not been a problem. The Bear rank 21st
with -0.3 Net Turnovers on Average.
The
Chicago Bears are led by GM Ryan Poles, Head Coach Matt Eberflus, OC Luke Getsy,
DC Alan Williams and STC Richard Hightower.
QB
Justin Fields was drafted in 2021 by the Bears in Round 1, #11 overall. With a
defensive head coach, it’s important for a young quarterback to have an OC with
a system that complements his talents and skills. The challenge with the Bears
is that both the Head coach and the OC are rookies at their positions. Getsy
has never been an Offensive Coordinator (OC) and as a position coach in Green Bay,
he was fortunate to be working with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. I’m not
sure how much coaching was needed with that tandem.
The
Patriots are always on their own plane of performance. Led by Pro Forma Hall of
Fame General Manager and Head Coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots made early
headlines when they named no specific Offensive Coordinators and instead naming
previous head coaches Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as Senior Football Advisor /Offensive
Line and Offensive Assistant/ Quarterback respectively. Many thought that Belichick
was losing it. Let’s look at their numbers.
The
Patriots rank 5th in Net Points at +4.7. They rank 12th
in scoring at 23.5 ppg and 7th in Points Against allowing 18.8 ppg.
They rank 16th in Average Turnover Differential at +0.2. This all
with a 2nd year quarterback in Mac Jones who has 2 touchdowns and 5
interceptions in 3 games this season while winning 1 game, losing two and a QBR
of just 33.9. Mac finished 2021 with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and a
QBR of 56.9. He’s officially listed
as on the injury list as questionable but reports are that he’s took the first
team reps on Saturday so he’s probable. Backup, Bailey Zappe lost his first
game to the Packers but won against the Lions and the Browns. He had 4 TDs and
1 Int but a QBR of just 35.
As
I mentioned before, it’s the Brain Trust matchup and the contrast in QB styles
that intrigues me. It’s one of the greatest coaches of all time and a pair of ex
head-coaches vs a rookie coaching cast and a 2nd year quarterback.
This football season has been a clear example of parity. Almost no favored team has gone unscathed. The Patriots are clear favorites with the Bias+ Reports at a score of 9.4. Vegas has the Pats as 8.5-point favorites. Bottom line, the Pats should win but if you’ve watched the Bucs lose to the Panthers and the Packers to the Commanders this weekend, you know it’s no sure thing. “It’s why they play the game” Anon
Enjoy!
BarrySterling Mitchell
#FootballidLife
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