The Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™

 

NFL Intriguing Game of the Week

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

Bias+ Score 0.5 Favors Dallas Cowboys

 

I hesitated to choose this game as my ‘Intriguing Game’ as it’s the NFL Game of the week. As such, this game will be scrutinized to the Nth degree. My normal criteria has more to do with where these teams are in my Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™ and the resulting Bias+ Scores.  This game has the smallest Bias+ score of the week and that’s a big qualifier.

However, this game has many more qualifiers. In addition to the smallest Bias+ score, the Vikings are coming off of one of the biggest wins of the season after beating the consensus Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills. This while the Cowboys took home a tidy L from the struggling Green Bay Packers.

Although, the Vikings rank 9^th in Average Net Points at +3.9, they rank 1^st in the NFL rankings at 8 wins, 1 loss over the 8 and 1 Philadelphia Eagles since the Vikings are undefeated in their Division and the Eagles have their only loss to Division opponent Washington Commanders.  The Cowboys are 6 and 3 and hold 3^rd place in their division, the NFC East. Add to this, the Vikings are home and that usually helps their chances. Despite all of those reasons, Vegas has the Cowboys as -1.5 favorites. That’s intriguing to me.

The Vikings rank 8^th in scoring at 25.1 Points Per Game (PPG) and defensively they rank 14th allowing 21.2 PPG. The Vikings have been in close games all year and probably feel right at home in these tight contests. Turnovers are not an issue as they rank 2^nd at +0.9 in Average Turnover Differential (ATOD).

The favored Dallas Cowboys ride into town ranked 4^th in Average Net Points at +4.1. This results from their average Points For at 23.4 ranking them 11^th and their Points Allowed at 18.2 ranking them 5th. The Cowboys rank 4^th in ATOD at +0.7. Obviously, it’s their defense that makes the positive difference.

Since we’re dealing in averages, let’s not ignore the elephant in the room. Both of these quarterbacks are considered just above average. Neither is considered elite.

Kirk Cousins is 20^th in QBR at 47.6 and in Passer Ratings at 87.0. Pro Football focus ranks Cousins 14^th with a 72.5 rating. For reference’s sake, Tua Tagovailoa is rated by 1^st at 91.5. Dak Prescott ranks 17^th with a PFF score of 69.9. He ranks 24^th in Passer Ratings at 85.9 and did not qualify for a QBR. Per ESPN, to qualify, a player must have at least 14 attempts per team's games played.

Bottom line, with all the histrionics surrounding both teams, the Vikings with their big wins and Kirk Cousins doubters and the Cowboys with their quarterback Cooper Rush comparisons for Dak, you have to agree the story lines make this game intriguing.

It has to be somewhat confusing to see the team with the lesser record be favored. You’d think the Vikings would be a No-Brainer. Turns out there are no solid No-Brainers this year. A closer look shows that over the last 3 weeks, Minnesota is true to their YTD average of +3.9 ANP at +4.7 ANPs. The Cowboys however,even with a loss are averaging +11.7 Net Points from their YTD average of 5.2 Net Points. Bottom line, it's the smallest Bias+ of the weekend so enjoy.