NFL Intriguing Game of
the Week
Baltimore
Ravens @ New Orleans Saints
Bias+ Score 5.1 Favors Baltimore
Ravens
My cohost Ben Dickerson on
our show Ben and Barry on Football™ called this match-up “Spooky”. The 3 & 5
Saints shut out the Las Vegas Raiders last week after allowing an average of
28.6 points (PPG) up to that game. The 5 & 3 Ravens have been popular
favorites in this matchup but some new information makes the potential victory
very tenuous.
The Saints will be led
by Quarterback Andy Daulton. At age 35, Daulton is a seasoned veteran with 11
seasons under his belt. He has been chosen over the presumed starter Jameis
Winston.
The Baltimore Ravens are led by the mercurial Lamar Jackson. Lamar is 25 years of age and has 4 seasons in the NFL. Lamar is looking for the big contract. He only earned an average of $2,367,913 per year through 2021.
This being Lamar’s prove it year adds to the
intrigue. This also happens to be his biggest pay year at $23,016,000. This
should only prove to motivate him since the median QB contract is now about $47
million per year (APY). Daulton has already earned in excess of $97 Million and
is only costing the Saints $3 Million in 2022 with no contract after this year.
That being said, the Saints have underperformed the Ravens.
Let’s check the numbers. The Ravens rank 7th in Net Points at +3.1. For reference’s sake the Buffalo Bills rank 1st with +15.8 Net Points. That ranks them just below the SF 49ers (+3.60) and just above the Bengals and the Jets (+2.8, +2.1). These are not dominant numbers.
Baltimore does ranks 5th in scoring at 26 PPG. Here's the chink in the armor. Defensively they rank 20th allowing 22.9 PPG. They rank 4th in Average Turnover Differential at +.08. Over the last 3 weeks, the Ravens win margin has shrunk to +1.3 but their Turnover Margin has stayed positive at +0.3.
As far as the scary
Saints are concerned, they have improved from a shaky start. Their season
Average Net Points is a dismal -0.1. However, over the last 3 weeks the Saints
are +4 in Net Points thanks mainly to the Shutout of the Raiders. They are
still close to breaking even at a 0 Average Turnover Margin. They were dead
last here. It’s their personal bugaboo. However, compared to the Ravens +1.3 net points, 4.0 net points looks particularly 'scary'.
Injuries will likely play a
major part in this game. Both teams will be missing significant personnel. For
the Raven’s, Lamar’s favorite target Tight End Mark Andrews is listed as Out. My
contention is that they are a tandem and when your tandem partner is out, the
adjustments can be difficult. Look for backup Isaiah Likely to try to fill that
void. They have other injuries to contend with also such as Rashod Bateman.
However, the same could
be said for the Saints. Michael Thomas came back and went back out. He was a
prolific receiver but is not an established tandem partner with his long absence.
In addition, they will be missing Mark
Ingram II, Marshon Lattimore and possibly Jarvis Landry.
Bottom line, we have to
keep our eyes on Lamar Jackson and Alvin Kamara. Lamar is a potent dual threat and is averaging
over 7 yards per carry. Kamara started the season slow but
scored 3 times last week.
However, it’s the defenses that need particular scrutiny. The Raven’s and Saint’s defenses are separated by only 2.1 points per game. So we ask, can the Saint’s carry forward last week’s dominant performance or does Lamar present a such a completely different challenge that the Raven’s will prevail, as predicted. Enjoy! #FootballisLife
Get Ben and Barry on Football™ at www.BenandBarryonFootball.com
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