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NFL Intriguing Game of the Week

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Bias+ Score 24.2 Favors Philadelphia Eagles

You have to admit, watching the week to week exploits of the last remaining undefeated NFL team is intriguing. Not only do the Eagles have the highest favorability score of the week at 24.2 but this is a division game and division games are inherently weird.

However, once you get past the upset narrative (and it’s short) there’s not much left to fuel the narrative of an Eagles loss.

Let’s go to the numbers starting with Washington. The Commanders rank 24th in Average Net Points (ANP) at -3.7. This is a season long statistic. Now, Quarterback Carson Wentz is on the bench and Taylor Heinicke is taking the snaps. In the last 3 weeks under Heinike, they average 0 ANPs breaking eve. They improved their scoring average by 1.3 Points Per Game (ppg) from 17.7 ppg to 19 ppg. Defensively, they rank a respectable 15th, allowing   21.3 ppg. They hold 26th place in Average Turnover Differential (ATOD) at -0.4. In the last 3 weeks they did improve that to +0.3.

The problem for Washington is that the Eagles are vastly superior in practically every category. The Eagles rank 2nd in scoring at 28.1 ppg. Defensively, they rank 4th allowing just 16.9 ppg. They rank 1st in ATOD at +1.9.  The Net effect is the Eagles fall behind only the Buffalo Bills at 11.3 ANPs.

The basis for the Bias+ Reports is the Point and Turnover Rankings. Washington has no equivalent ranking stats to the Eagles. HOWEVER, every week I give out The Bias+ Buster of the Week™ Award. It celebrates the victories of the underdog based on the net win differential. All of these awards go to teams who had little chance to win.

Bottom line, to beat this Eagle team would be to become the story of the weekend in a weekend that saw Tampa Bay and Green Bay break losing streaks and the Raiders lose to an interim coach with no NFL coaching experience. The old sayings like ‘Any Given Sunday’ are about all the Commanders have to hang their hats on. Sometimes though, that enough. Enjoy!




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