NFL
Intriguing Game of the Day
Green
Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Bias+
Score 18.1 Favors Philadelphia Eagles
The
traveling Aaron Rodgers Road Show coupled with the Eagles having the highest Bias+
favor of the weekend is just the start of what makes this my ‘Intriguing Game’.
How about, it’s the $50 Million quarterback vs the $1.5 Million quarterback. Hmmm.
Just this fact has so many implications beyond this game. But let’s stick with
the game for now. That this game has the highest Bias+ Score of the week begs
for some scrutiny.
If
you follow me on Facebook* you will see my weekly piece called the Bias+ Buster
of the Week™. We celebrate the underdog that wins. In the past weeks we’ve seen
the Lions beat the favored Giants, we saw the Washington Commanders win over
these same Philadelphia Eagles and the drama laden New York Jets defeat the odds-on
Super Bowl Favorite Buffalo Bills. We love this stuff. But can the Green Bay Packers
overcome? Let’s look at the numbers.
The
Green Bay Packers rank 26th in Net Points at -3.7 and a win loss record
of 4 and 7. Surprisingly, since the Lions are also 4 and 7 and the Bears even
worse, the Packers could compete for 2nd place and maybe, just maybe
playoff qualify. Here’s the challenge, the Pack ranks 26th in
scoring at 18.4 Points Per Game (PPG). We’ll talk about the Packer offensive
drama later but what’s most important is that the Packer defense is ranked 16th
allowing 22.1 PPG and 27th in Average Turnover Differential (ATOD)
at -0.4. If there was a picture of mediocrity, this is it.
The
Philadelphia Eagles did not hit a speed bump until week 10 where they Eagles were
favored over the Washington Commanders by a Bias+ Score of 24.2. Until that
point in time, they were highly ranked. They still are. They rank 3rd
in Average Net Points at +8. They rank 4th offensively scoring 26.3
PPG, 7th defensively allowing 18.3 PPG and 1st in ATOD at
+1.2. These are stellar numbers for sure.
We
spoke of the traveling Aaron Rodgers Road Show. The Green Bay Packers started
out well enough. They were 3 and 1 through the first 4 games of the season.
Then the losing started. They lost 5 straight before beating the Dallas Cowboys
and again losing to the Tennessee Titans. During this time, Aaron Rodgers
questioned his young receivers, mused on retiring but did not mention his
broken thumb. This is a former League MVP who is struggling with the playoff tipping
point of their season at hand.
Over
the last 3 weeks, the Eagles win margin dropped to +0.7. The Commanders exposed
their run defense as vulnerable. They rank 23rd in rushing yards
allowed at 139.7 YPG. They are 19th for the season allowing 122.2
YPG. They also rank 24th over the last 3 weeks in ATOD at -0.7. Clearly
there are vulnerabilities.
The
Pack averages the same as the Eagles season allowed average in rushing yards
per game at 122. This will be a key to the game because the x-factor is always
Jalen Hurts mobility. Keeping him on the sideline will bode well for the Packers.
However, their Average Net points over the past few weeks also took a hit
falling from -3.7 ANPs to -4.3 ANPs.
This
is where we bring up the contract disparities. Aaron Rodgers is the highest
paid quarterback on average in the NFL. Jalen Hurts is ahead of only backup QBs
and a few backup QBs are making more than him. Aaron Rodgers should feel some
kind of way at being such an underdog. So should the rest of the Packer Brain trust
that signed him to that deal. Is this the way to build a winner? You have to be
exceptionally savvy to pull this off. These are questions that will be debated
in the weeks to come. As far as this game is concerned, while it’s logical to
lean on the run game vs the Eagles there will come a time for some Aaron Rodgers
magic.
Bottom
line, this would be a devastating loss for the fluttering Eagles and a season
high point for the struggling Packers if they pull this off. If the Pack can
contain Jalen and run the ball, they have a chance. Vegas has the Eagles as -6.5-point
favorites so the odds add up against the Packers. Plus, it’s raining & away
which also bodes badly for the Pack. Can the Pack & their $50 Million
investment overcome? Enjoy! 🏈is ☯
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