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NFL Intriguing Game of the Day

Green Bay Packers (6-8) @ Miami Dolphins (8-6)

Bias+ Score 2.4 Favors Miami Dolphins

Close Bias+ matchups are inherently intriguing. This one features a hot new contender vs a legacy team with a former MVP who’s reticent. However, it’s playoff elimination time and the Packers at 6 and 8 can’t afford a loss as they are on the bubble and would be on the outside looking in if the season ended today. By comparison, the Miami Dolphins are in the Hunt.  If the season ended today, they would make the playoffs.

The declared Bias+ score is a season long number and teams morph through the season. Some get better. Some get worse. Or so it seems. Many time it’s the ups and downs of the competition. So, let’s look at both the season numbers, recent numbers and the competition.

Through the season, the Dolphins offense is rated 9th at 24.6 points per game (ppg). They will face a Green Bay defense that’s rated 16th allowing 22.4 ppg. The Packers offense is ranked 20th scoring 20.5 ppg. They will face a Miami defense that has allowed 24.6 ppg and is ranked 26th. Neither team has a definitive advantage at our other important category Average Turnover Margin (ATOD) with the Packers having a 0.1 advantage.

The momentum story however seems to tell a different story until you dig deeper. In the last three weeks, Green Bay has been on a roll winning 2 of 3 and averaging +4.7 Net Points. Their wins however have been against two teams with win loss records of 7 and 22. Their loss was against much better competition against the now 2 loss Philadelphia Eagles.

Over the last 3 weeks Miami has -8.3 Net Points. They had 3 losses to teams with combined win loss records of 31 and 11.

So where does that lead to? It leads to a Bias+ score of 2.4 favoring the Dolphins as these are two teams have different characteristics but close results through the year. Green Bay has been hotter recently but the Dolphins have played hotter teams. This should make for a very dynamic contest. Enjoy! 

#FootballisLife 🏈is ☯






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