The Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™

 

NFL Intriguing Game of the Day

Detroit Lions @ New York Jets

Bias+ Score 0.2 Favors Detroit Lions

 

The interesting thing about tracking teams with the Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™ is the relative nature of these stats. On the Ben and Barry on Football Show™, we discussed the “Rankings Differential”. That’s the difference between the Points For or scoring and the Points Against or defensive points allowed. My classic example is the Denver Broncos, where they mortgaged the future for one Russell Wilson and as of the last accounting, the Broncos were 4^th in Points Allowed and dead last (32^nd) in scoring averaging 14.9 points per game. That’s a ranking differential of 28.

The other relative comparison is between the Detroit Lions and the Seattle Seahawks. For most of this season, they were both on track to have outstanding offensive scoring and dismal defensive performances. Seattle is ranked 6^th in scoring averaging 26.3 ppg. Their defense however is 30^th allowing 25.7 ppg. How close has the Lions tracked the Seahawks? The Lions are ranked 5^th on scoring averaging 26.8 ppg and defensively at 31^st allowing 26.7 ppg. They’re like twins. They both are +0.2 in Average Turnover Production.

This is all to add some context for my decision to make this my ‘Intriguing Game’. Because with all of the ranking differential displayed by the Lions, the Jets have their own ranking differential but in reverse. Offensively, the Jets rank 22^nd in scoring producing average of 20.3 Points Per Game (ppg). Defensively however, the Jets rank 6^th allowing only 18.7 ppg. They carry a -0.2 Average turnover differential.

When we add it all up, it’s why we start with the Average Net Points. For the teams mentioned here, the Average Net Points go like this; Broncos rank 26^th with -3.4 Average Net Points (ANP), the Seahawks rank 10^th with +0.6 ANP, the Lions rank 12^th with +0.2 ANP and the Jets rank 9^th with +1.6 ANP. 

For the Lions vs the Jets, the ANP difference is 1.4 in favor of the Jets. What changes the favor from the Jets to the Lions is ATOD or Average Turnover differential. Using the Pythagorean Calculation which values a turnover at 4 points, the .4 favor for the Lions equates to 1.6 points. This moves the favor over to the Lions by the 0.2 Bias+ result.

Yes, there are a host of additional things to point to that makes this an Intriguing Game. We discuss them at length on the Show. Enjoy!