NFL
Intriguing Game of the Day
New
York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings
Bias+
Score 1.4 Favors New York Jets
When
you look at this Bias+ score and see the NY Jets favored, you have to say
whaaaat??? Aren’t the Minnesota Vikings 1st in the NFC North
Division and 2nd in the National Conference with a 9 and 2 record? Then
you look at the NY Jets. Aren’t they 3rd in the AFC East with a 7
and 4 record? Strangely, the answer to all of these questions is YES and thus
we have my ‘Intriguing Game of the Week.’
I’m
famous for trying to put things in context…Kinda LOL. When you look at the context
of the Division opponents, the picture, the impression changes. The record of
the rest of the NFC North is 11 and 24 while the competition in the AFC East is
30 and 16. At 7 and 4, the Jets would be 1st in the NFC North.
Let’s look at the numbers.
The underdog Minnesota Vikings rank 13th in Average Net Points (ANP)
at +0.5 Net Points. This is the first Red Flag. How is a team 9 & 2 and
only a half point in the black for Average Net Points? Haven’t they been
balling with one of the top receivers in the league in Justin
Jefferson? Yes, they have. The Vikings rank 12th in scoring at 23.9 Points Per Game (PPG). However, they rank 21st in
Average Points Against at 23.4 PPG. So, this is a team whose defense belies the
9 and 2 record. The Vikings however rank a strong 3rd in Average
Turnover Differential at +0.5.
The J.E.T.S., Jets, Jets, Jets are the only team I have
family that played for. My personal fun fact 😊 However, the Jets have been embroiled in controversy since their starter Zack Wilson
famously denied any accountability for their team loss. He was benched and backup
Mike White
has stepped in big time. Against the admittedly disabled Chicago Bears, he had
a 78.6 completion percentage, 315 yards passing, 3 touchdowns and a 149.3 Passer
Ratings and most importantly a win.
The Jets rank ahead of the Vikings in ANP at
+3.1. Offensively, they rank 20th averaging 20.9 PPG. Defensively
however, the Jets rank 4th. They only allow an average of 17.8 PPG.
They rank 10th in ATOD at +0.2.
The Jets may be 7 and 4 vs the Vikings 9 and 2 but their wins have been by
a larger margin because their defense has outperformed Minnesota’s defense by
about a touchdown per game.
Bottom line, it's a good thing for the Vikings that the main
comparison is for the season and not the last 3 games. Over the last few weeks,
the Vikings are 30th with -9 ANPs. The Jets however, rank 9th
at +5.7 ANPs. At 14.7, this differential would make the Jets look like big
favorites but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Mike White still has to
put together 2 good games. Enjoy! #FootballisLife 🏈is ☯
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