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NFL Intriguing Game of the Day

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Bias+ Score 0.2 Favors Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Sometimes a game looks intriguing and you don’t know why. Yes, this game meets one of my main criteria, it’s the smallest Bias+ Score of the week at 0.2. Plus, this is a Divisional matchup which is always a bit unpredictable. Also, that it favors the 4 & 8 Jaguars over the 7 & 5 Titans. This dichotomy is at the core of why we study the point differentials. In addition, we dove deep to find an astonishing statistic so let’s go the numbers.

We start with the Titans. The Titans are 1st in the division and look to have a hold on a playoff spot. But they are not posing a Super Bowl Threat as their odds to win the Title are +4000. For reference’s sake, the Buffalo Bills are +380. The reasons behind this show up in their Net points where they rank 20th at -1.8. 

How is a team sporting such a winning record and be negative in their Point Margin. Well, it’s a team contribution but with a defensive let down. The Offense is only ranked 26th with Average Points For (APF) at 18.3. That in itself is weak. However, defensively they rank a respectable 11th but it means they still allow more than the offense provides at 20 points per game (PPG). The are somewhat victims of an especially bad loss to the Philadelphia Eagles losing by 25 points. Their Average Turnover Differential is respectable at +.02 ranking them 10th. That loss and the great performance by former Titan A.J. Brown is said to have played a large part in the General Manager being fired. The Titans hold 20th place in ANP at -1.8.

The Jaguars at 4 and 8 rank 1 slot ahead of the Titans at 19th averaging -1.2 Net Points per game. They rank 17th at 21.5 PPG. The rank Defensively the Jags hold 16th place allowing 22.7 PPG. In both cases the Net Point margins are small so where is the difference. It’s not in ATOD because they rank below the Titans ranking 14th at +0.1. Strangely, it’s in rush yards.

The weird stat we found is that the Jaguars have more total rush yards than the team that prides itself & depends most heavily on the run game. For the year, the Jags have 1529 total rush yards to the Titans 1439 yards. The Titans rush game is based on Derrick Henry he has 1078 of their yards. The Jaguars have a more diverse attack with Travis Etienne having the bulk of the carries (782 Yards) but sharing carries with James Robinson & JaMycal Hasty (340 & 120).

Bottom line, the betting odds give the Titans no more than the Home court edge of 3 points. The larger questions for both teams lie with the performances of the quarterbacks. Neither Titans veteran
Ryan Tannehill nor 2nd year play caller Trevor Lawrence have been impressive. However, if like the eagles, the Jaguars can control Derrick Henry plus get their ground game in gear, the Bias+ may hold up. Enjoy! 🏈is ☯




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