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NFL Intriguing Game of the Day

Detroit Lions (8&8) @ Green Bay Packers (8&8)

Bias+ Score 1.2 Favors Detroit Lions

Say it aint so. The Detroit Lions are favored over the Green Bay Packers. With the smallest Bias+ Score of the week, these two teams could not have arrived at the same win/loss records from a more different combination of points scored vs points allowed.

The Bias+ indicates that in addition to win/loss, these teams are close in term of net points with Detroit ranking 10th with +1.4 Net Points and the Packers ranking 12th with +0.2 Net Points. They are even tied in Average Turnover Differential (ATOD) at +0.3. The following numbers will illustrate the intrigue. Let’s start with the underdog Packers.





The Green Bay Packers embody the phrase ‘Middle of the Pack.’ They rank 14th in scoring averaging 22.1 Points per Game (PPG), just ahead of the NY Giants Cleveland, New England and Carolina. Defensively, they rank 17th allowing 21.9 ppg, ahead of New Orleans, Washington, Tennessee and the NY Giants.


The Detroit Lions are the picture of contrasts. They rank 5th in scoring with 27.1 PPG with only Kansas City, Dallas, Philadelphia, Buffalo scoring more. Defensively however, they rank 29th allowing 25.7 PPG sharing the basement with Indianapolis, Arizona, Minnesota and Chicago.

This is crazy enough but let’s add some recency bias to the story. Over the last 3 weeks, Detroit is averaging +6.7 Net Points. This is a much better result that their season long numbers. To some degree, this is an improvement defensively of 4.4 PPG to 21.3 PPG from the season average of 25.7 PPG. Improvement is good.

The Green Bay Packers however, have done some ’improving’ also. Their defense is allowing just 16.3 PPG, a 5.6 PPG improvement. In addition, although the Lions added 0.9 Points to their offensive scoring average over the last 3 weeks, the Packers added 8.2 PPG to their average scoring at 30.3 PPG.

Both the Packers and the Lions are “On the Bubble” when it come to the playoffs. While the Lions will need some help even if they win, the Packers are in a Win and In scenario.

Bottom line, both teams have playoff possibilities and therefore motivation to play hard. We love division games because they are even more unpredictable. While both teams are arriving to this game from disparate scoring histories, they both have equal aspirations. Let’s just hope there’s no ‘kneecap biting’. 😂 Enjoy! #FootballisLife 🏈is ☯



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