NFL Intriguing Game of
the Week
NY
Giants 9-7-1 @ Minnesota Vikings 13-4
Bias+ Score 0.2 Favors NY
Giants
How is this 9-7-1 team
favored over the 13-4 team? This question undergirds the reason that this is
the ‘Intriguing’ game. It starts with the Minnesota Vikings who have been
recognized for their win/loss record versus their win margin.
In late October Minnesota
Head Coach Kevin O'Connell said the team has accomplished those feats by
"winning on the margins." Although I don’t think he meant point
margin, by December the Vikings were 9 and 0 in one-score games. This is compared
to the NY Giants who had their fair share of squeakers. However, with a record much
closer to .500, the Giant’s win margins are not surprising. Let’s dig into the
numbers and see how this shakes out.
The Minnesota Vikings
finished the regular season poised for the Playoffs but still negative in Net Points
ranking 15th with -0.2 Net Points. How you say? It has a lot to do
with the big losses vs the big wins. Although the Vikes are impressive in close
games, they have won big and lost bigger like in the early season when the beat
the Green Bay Packers by 16 in week 1 but lost the following week to the Philadelphia Eagles by 17.
Offensively, the Vikings
rank 8th averaging 24.7 points per game (ppg). The finished 2nd
to the Kansas City Chiefs in passing yardage at 4,818 yards to the Chiefs who rolled up 5,220 yards.
The Chiefs finished the season 1st in points scored at 29.2 PPG.
Defense is where the
Vikings are especially vulnerable. They finished the season ranked 29th
allowing 25.1 ppg. They also rank next to last in passing yards allowed at 4,515.
For reference, the Philadelphia Eagles are # 1 in passing yards allowed at 3,057.
We track Average
Turnover Differential (ATOD). The Vikings rank 14th at .01. Just a
little over break even. Next up, the favored NY Giants.
At 9-7 and 1, the Giants
are one of the three Playoff contenders from the NFC East Division. They rank
15th in Net Points at -0.4. Just behind those Vikings. Offensively,
the Giants rank 16th at 21.5 PPG. Their strength is in the run game ranking
4th in rush yardage at 2,519. They place ahead of the Viking in ATOD
ranking 11th at 0.4.
On our YouTube show, we
discuss the idea of ‘Ranking Differential’. What we are seeing are ranking
differences between a team’s scoring offense and their scoring defense. The iconic
team here is the Detroit Lions. They have consistently scored in the top
quartile while their scoring defense is in the bottom quartile. They finished 5th
offensively and 28th defensively, a 23-place ranking differential.
Comparatively, the Vikings
8th place in offensive ranking but 29th defensively
spanning the top and bottom quartiles. The Giants however have a different Ranking
Differential profile. The occupy the middle quartiles with close rankings. They
rank 16th offensively and 17th place defensively. The
profile for these two teams could not be more different.
So how does the Giant
have the Bias+ in their favor? It’s the + that’s the difference. My approach uses
the Pythagorean calculations. That means that a 4-multiplier is used to convert
turnovers to points. With only a fractional margin of difference in Net Points that
swung the favor to the Giants. Wow.
So here are two of the
three reasons I find this game so intriguing. The third is the Kirk Cousins effect.
Both on the games and on the general sentiment on him as a player. Here I’ve
come up with a new stat called Mind Farts. Come on, we all have them. When I’m
playing Madden, I hit the x instead of the y, get intercepted and it was a mind
fart. You want to a. minimize them, ie Tom Brady. (Remember when he didn’t know
what down it was? Doesn’t happen often but it happens.) Well, my observance
says that Kirk has some very ill-timed Mind Farts. Most detractor don’t have a
term for it so they’re welcome to use mine. Speaking of occupying the middle. Kirk
Cousins has a 72-65-2 record for his career. Stat Muse (https://www.statmuse.com) has his Viking Record at 46-33-1.
According to https://sportsandfitnessdigest.com,
‘With the Minnesota Vikings from 2018-21, Kirk Cousins was 6-21 (.222) against
winning teams as the starting quarterback.” Ala, the Kirk Cousins Effect.
Bottom Line, neither team
has shown the ability to consistently dominate. The Viking are top scorers who
give away more points than they score. The Giants are right in the middle for
both sides of the ball but have a few decimal points advantage in turnovers.
Kirk Cousins will be up
against his own history as he challenges in these playoffs. However, in the
spirit of equal time, I’ll mention the Giants QB Daniel Jones. He has a new
coaching brain trust and it seems to be helping. I have labelled the Giants as
a team that can play 11 on 11 football. The G Men have used his athleticism to
good measure. Keep an eye on the play selection. If they go with the running QB
theme, it could really hurt the Vikings who rank 20th in rush yards
allowed at 2,903. Lastly, whose star will shine brightest Giants Running back Saquon
Barkley or Justin Jefferson? Enjoy! #FootballisLife 🏈is ☯
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