The Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™

 

NFL Intriguing Game of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

Bias+ Score 2 Favors Buffalo Bills

 

The Buffalo Bills have dominated the Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™ since the beginning of the season. They traded 1^st place with the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys off and on but held 1^st place the majority of the year.

The Cincinnati Bengals have held on at about 6^th place in Average Net Points (ANP) at close to half of the Bills production. Where the Bills finished the regular season in 1^st place at +10.6 ANP, the Bengals finished 6^th with +6 ANPs. So how are the Bills only favored by a Bias+ score of 2? This plus the potential effect of the Damar Hamlin incident makes this my ‘Intriguing Game of the Week.’

Let’s start with the favored Bills. The Bills finished the regular season ranked 1^st in Average Net Points at +10.6. That is the result of being ranked 2^nd offensively scoring 28.4 points per game (ppg) and 2^nd in Points Allowed at 17.9 ppg. (Difference due to rounding). These are dominating statistics. Where they are not dominant is in turnovers. It’s Average Turnover Differential where their dominance dissipates. They rank a middling 15^th breaking even at 0 ATOD.

The Bengals have been steady if nothing else. They are in the 1^st quartile in all of our tracked statistics. They are 6^th in Average Net Points (ANP) at +6, 7^th in scoring at 26.1 ppg, 6^th in defensive scoring allowing 20.1 ppg and 6^th in ATOD at +0.4. They are very good in every category.

Notice that up to this point I have cited stats as of the end of the regular season. Both teams however had Wildcard playoff games. The changes in rankings and numbers were minimal. Both teams actually looked very vulnerable. Buffalo fell 1 place to 2^nd in Net Points at 10.1. In actuality they finished the regular season 2^nd in Net Points but 1^st in average Net points since they completed only 16 games. The San Francisco 49ers ranked 1^st in Total Net Points and continued with that ranking after the Wild Card round. The Bengals held steady with the 6^th ranking improving by a percentage point.

Another area of ‘Intrigue’ is that this is a classic distinction in offensive styles. The Bills embrace 11 on 11 football with Quarterback Josh Allen as a threat to run both by design and off platform. Bengals QB Joe Burrow is much more of a pocket passer and excels as such.

Both Head Coaches carry the burden of trying to bring the first Super Bowl to their franchise. The Bengals have been there most recently having lost just last year 2021 season to the LA Rams, 23-20.

In total they are 0 & 3 in their Super Bowl attempts losing the other two to e Forty niners. The Bills have the distinction of being the only NFL team to lose in 4 consecutive Super Bowls so history has not been kind to either team in that regard.

I mentioned the Damar Hamlin effect earlier. He seemed to be much more of an inspiration during the final regular season contest with the New England Patriots where they opened the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown. Not so much however as they struggled a bit in the Wildcard round holding on against Miami’s third quarterback.

Both teams were profoundly affected by Damar’s medical emergency. Once he made his dramatic recovery, both teams were able to move on to the job at hand and while it’s unknown if he will attend this game, once the hitting starts, I expect his impact to be minimal.

So, where’s the rub? It’s turnovers. Including the Wildcard round Cincinnati has been better. They rank 7^th with +0.4 ATOD while the Bills are 18^th with -0.1 ATOD. The Bengals probably had the Turnover of the year when they took a goal line fumble by the Ravens 99 yards for the winning score. Josh Allen on the other hand has been able to overcome his predilection to turnovers by prolific scoring.

Bottom line, the Bills are favored by the Smallest Bias+ of these Divisional Playoffs because they have trimmed their lead through turnovers. The Bengals however will have their hands full with an Offensive line troubled by injuries and their defense will be challenged to play 11 on 11 with one of the two best teams playing that style. They other being the Philadelphia Eagles.

As T.O. (Terrell Owens) once said,” get your Popcorn ready. There should be plenty of emotions, drama and intrigue when these two teams hit the turf and each other. Enjoy!