The Sterling Net Point Power Rankings™

 

NFL Intriguing Game of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)

Bias+ Score 0.1 favors Kansas City Chiefs

By Barry Sterling Mitchell

 

I never make the ‘Intriguing’ game choice based on how big the game is. While this game is a huge Monday night event, that would not in itself qualify. What stood out to me as intriguing is that these teams have reached the same success as leaders of their conference but in very different ways.

In particular what stood out was their rankings vs their record. Although they rank 1^st in their conferences based on win percentage. The Chiefs rank 5^th in Net Points averaging 7.2 Net Points while the Eagles rank 7^th with 6.3 Average Net Points (ANP). What this means is that although they win at a high rate, they are not winning by big margins. Plus, when I saw the Bias+ score of 0.1, this game became ultra intriguing. Even Vegas has it close with the Chiefs 2.5 point favorites.

 

First let’s review the stats of the favored Chiefs. Offensively, this is not last years offense. Normally the Chiefs are a high scoring group. In 2022 the Chiefs averaged 29.2 Points Per Game (PPG) for a 1^st place ranking. In 2023 the Chiefs scoring is much more modest ranking 13^th averaging 23.1 PPG. That puts them behind the Browns, the Texans and the Vikings. Not exemplary scoring company.

Just as big a turnaround but in a more positive direction is the KC Defense. In 2022 their defense finished the season ranked 18^th allowing 22.2 PPG. In 2023 however, the Chiefs defense is a thing of pride. They rank 3^rd allowing just 15.9 PPG tied with the 49ers and just .2 points behind the 1^st place Ravens.

What’s amazing is that their point differential between 2022 and 2023 is scarily similar at +7.0 for 2022 and +7.2 for 2023. PS, last year they won the Super Bowl.

When I said that the Eagles and the Chiefs arrived at the same place but in different ways, I’m comparing the offenses and the defenses. Where the Chiefs were scoring leaders and defensive scoring laggards, the Eagles are complete opposites.

In 2022, the Eagles were no scoring slouches. They ranked 2^nd in scoring just .1 point behind the Chiefs. This year, they rank 4^th offensively scoring 28 PPG. The difference is that this year the Eagles defense ranks 18^th allowing 21.7 PPG. In 2022, the Eagles defense ranked 7^th allowing 19.8 PPG.

While the Chiefs hold a 0.9 Net Point advantage, the turnover advantage goes to the Eagles. That difference paired the Bias+ to the aforementioned 0.1.

However, the razor thin advantage of the Chiefs is negated over the past 3 weeks. Over that time, the Eagles are averaging 8.7 net points. Kansas City is winning by an average of just 2 points. That number no doubt influenced by their 15-point loss to the Broncos. Add to this, the Eagles have a full 1 turnover advantage.

Caveats Nothing like a Monday Night contest where both teams are coming off of a bye. Eagles coach nick Sirianni is 2-0. The Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid at 21-3 is renown for winning coming out of the Bye week.

Other than Eagle’s Tight End Dallas Goedert, neither team has an injury that can be blamed for a loss.

Bottom line, over the season, these teams were all but equal on a Net Point basis. The biggest difference is on defense where the Chiefs have a decided advantage. Even with that, over the past few weeks, however, the Eagles have had the superior results both in wins & turnover margin. You listening Vegas? Enjoy! #FootballisLife 🏈is ☯